Last season was the first in a long time where the Chiefs Playoffs Chances were worth following, and fans know the team for the first time in the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era came up short.
But all is far from lost in Kansas City, even if Mahomes is still recovering from late season ACL and LCL tears. The Chiefs Super Bowl chances next season are still more than live at each and every sportsbook, but there are questions about when Mahomes will be ready to be back under center.
BetMissouri.com breaks down the Chiefs Week 1 QB odds after the team traded for Justin Fields as insurance this off-season.
Given the positive prognosis from Mahomes himself, who told media members in January that his rehab from knee surgery was “going great,” along with his personal goal of returning in time for Week 1, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the six-time Pro Bowler under center to start the season.
Still, Kansas City made sure to land a backup plan should Mahomes’ recovery hit the skids, bringing in former first round pick Justin Fields in a trade with the New York Jets that sent a 2027 sixth round pick to The Meadowlands. Given that Fields is 16-37 as a starter with the Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers and Jets, it’s fair for Chiefs fans and brass to hope that Mahomes’ positive outlook proves prescient.
Still, a torn ACL (and LCL) like the one Mahomes suffered typically requires a nine-month rehab process, which would put the former Texas Tech star’s return somewhere in mid-September.
While the NFL hasn’t released the Chiefs (or anyone else’s) 2026 schedule yet, we do know that the league typically kicks off in early September, with Kansas City’s Week 1 game a year ago (against the Chargers) kicking off on Sept. 5.
Assuming K.C.’s Week 1 game this season is on a similar timeline, it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to see Mahomes penciled in at QB1, given his stated goal of playing in that contest with “no restrictions.”
Given Mahomes’ rehab success and the nicely scheduled start of the NFL season around the typical ACL tear recovery timeline, we’re going with the superstar as our overwhelming favorite to start for Kansas City in the opening week of the year (odds you won't find on BetMGM Missouri).
Overall, we’re giving Mahomes -145 (or 59%) odds of being the Chiefs’ QB1 in Week 1, while Fields is listed at +175 (or 36%) and any other contenders come in at a distant +2800 (or ~3%).
Given how poorly the Chiefs fared without Mahomes last year, skidding to a 6-11 finish by falling to the Bolts on Dec. 14 (16-13) and to the Tennessee Titans (26-9), Denver Broncos (20-13) and Las Vegas Raiders (14-12), football fans in Kansas City can only hope he’s ready to roll come Week 1.
For now, all we can do is read the tea leaves that come down from Mahomes and team sources, which look quite positive for the three-time Super Bowl champion quarterback as the NFL’s marathon of an offseason rolls onward in the Show-Me State and across the country.
Author
Christopher Boan is a lead writer for BetMissouri.com, specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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