Few NFL quarterbacks over the years have gotten off to a better start than three-time Super Bowl winner Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. He has a career approximate value of 123 in 112 games played (per Pro-Football-Reference.com), made six Pro Bowl teams and has been Associated Press Most Valuable Player twice.
BetMissouri.com broke down where Mahomes, 29, ranks in several categories compared to the all-time greats. We then made projections based on where Mahomes, the biggest key to Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl odds, could end his career among the greatest ever.
See Patrick Mahomes MVP odds going into the 2025-26 NFL season at BetMissouri.com.
We made these projections based on Mahomes playing several more seasons. We took the four all-time top leaders in passing yards, plus active leader Aaron Rodgers, and averaged out the number of games they played. We came up with 287.6 and used that as a basis for projecting the final stats for Mahomes, based on his current pace in the statistical categories above.
Mahomes was named the Associated Press Most Valuable Player twice since the Chiefs drafted him going 10th overall out of Texas Tech in 2017.
Here are the approximate value, passing yards and touchdowns for Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and active leader Aaron Rodgers, as benchmarks for what Mahomes is chasing. Keep track of Missouri sportsbooks developments with BetMissouri as the launch date of legal sportsbooks gets closer.
Check out our Kansas City Chiefs betting guide for knowledge that you’ll need when the Show Me State launches legal, regulated sports betting later in 2025.
Mahomes still has a way to go to catch any of the five current or future Hall of Fame QBs here. But there is no denying that the veteran, entering his ninth season, is off to a great start. After seven seasons as a starter (and his rookie year of 2017, which he mostly watched from the bench), Mahomes has a higher AV per game than any of the gunslingers spotlighted for our story, at 1.1 according to pro-football-reference.com data.
The Chiefs star has the all-time record for most average passing yards per game, 288.9, so you have a pretty good idea of the type of career that Mahomes is having while still in his 20s (he turns 30 on Sept. 17). See our Missouri NFL betting guide for more insight on Kansas City’s upcoming season.
Based on his current pace, Mahomes would finish second in career AV (315.8) and passing touchdowns (629) should he play 287.6 games (the average of the other five QBs we measured). Assuming he stay healthy and plays every game, and that the NFL sticks to a 17-game regular season, Mahomes would hit that number early in the 2035-36 season.
Rodgers is theoretically an active player (though he’s unsigned for the upcoming NFL season) and could add to his career totals. But it’s fair to say that Rodgers, the No. 5 man in terms of career AV total (243) will likely stay there; he is 16 behind Favre, his former teammate in Green Bay, who had 259 AV in 302 NFL games.
Mahomes enters the 2025-26 NFL season looking to grab that fourth Lombardi Trophy as the Chiefs – who have been to the big game five times in the past six years, going 3-2 – are fourth on the Super Bowl futures board at DraftKings. KC’s +750 odds rank behind the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (+650), Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens (+700 each) as of June 5.
When operators offering real money Missouri sports betting promo codes launch in the state, we expect DraftKings to be among the major players.
USA Today photo by Mark J. Rebilas
Author
Christopher Boan is a lead writer for BetMissouri.com, specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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