NFL Draft First-Round Value: Where Chiefs Rank Since 2014

NFL Draft First-Round Value: Where Chiefs Rank Since 2014
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

The 2024 NFL Draft is just a few weeks away and this promises to be one of the best drafts in recent memory. But which teams have had the most success in Round 1 over the last decade?

Thanks to the Pro-Football-Reference website, Bet Missouri.com – where we cover all issues pertaining to Missouri sports betting legalization efforts – pulled data on how well every team has drafted in the first round since 2014. The idea behind the research was to find the total approximate value (AV) of all the first-round picks by a specific team and then average it out by number of picks.

So which teams performed the best? And how do the Kansas City Chiefs rank, especially now that they are coming off back-to-back Super Bowl wins? Let’s dive into the data:

Draft 1st-Round Value By Team Since 2014

RankTeamTotal Approximate Value# of 1st Round Draft PicksAverage Approximate Value Per Pick
1Los Angeles Rams285471.3
2Dallas Cowboys372941.3
3Chicago Bears253736.1
4Buffalo Bills322935.8
5Tampa Bay Buccaneers312934.7
6Kansas City Chiefs235733.6
7Baltimore Ravens4281332.9
8Indianapolis Colts174629.0
T-9Carolina Panthers2891028.9
T-9Miami Dolphins3181128.9
11Pittsburgh Steelers258928.7
12San Francisco 49ers3141128.5
13New York Giants3401228.3
14Cleveland Browns3371228.1
15New Orleans Saints3361228.0
16Atlanta Falcons3051127.7
17Tennessee Titans2981127.1
18Las Vegas Raiders3151226.3
19Los Angeles Chargers2871126.1
20Denver Broncos203825.4
21Arizona Cardinals226925.1
22Detroit Lions3001225.0
23Washington Commanders2461024.6
24Jacksonville Jaguars2901224.2
25Minnesota Vikings2411024.1
26Houston Texans183822.9
27New York Jets2861322.0
T-28Cincinnati Bengals1911019.1
T-28Green Bay Packers1911019.1
30Philadelphia Eagles1881018.8
31New England Patriots136817.0
32Seattle Seahawks110715.7

There are no legal Missouri sportsbook apps but in neighboring Kansas, the Chiefs have +650 odds to become the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls. That’s second behind the San Francisco 49ers, the team that Kansas City defeated last month in Super Bowl 58.

The success of the first-round picks over the past 10 years by the Chiefs, who rank sixth on our list, has been spotty. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020), Dee Ford (2014), and Marcus Peters (2015) were all solid players for the Chiefs, but none were signed to long-term deals. Trent McDuffie (2022) and George Karlaftis (2022) were both big contributors in the past two Super Bowl wins for the Chiefs, but it’s hard to say what the future looks like for both players considering they are only two years into their NFL careers.

Patrick Mahomes Accounts For High Average

But one pick explains why the Chiefs rank this high in draft pick value since 2014: Patrick Mahomes.

The quarterback, drafted No. 10 overall in 2017, has a career AV of 109. That is just one point less than all of the first-round picks for the Seattle Seahawks since 2014 combined. Since becoming the full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes averages an AV of 18 per season, has been the league’s Most Valuable Player twice and has led Kansas City to three Super Bowl titles.

It’s worth mentioning that the highest AV season in NFL history came from LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. It’s also important to remember that AV only accounts for the regular season. Otherwise, Mahomes and the Chiefs would be even higher on this list.

The Chiefs have a very solid recent draft history, especially outside of Round 1. Recent hits such as Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith and Rashee Rice have allowed this team to keep its championship window open. (For another example of the Chiefs getting production out of a later pick, see our story about Noah Gray value among NFL tight ends.)

The Chiefs been really good in the first round too, but that’s mostly been because of Mahomes. Don’t expect Kansas City’s window to close any time soon as the Chiefs have one of the NFL’s top front offices.

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Author

Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL betting analyst for BetMissouri.com. Marcus focuses on how the NFL, NFL Draft and NFL news impacts Missouri sports betting.

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