On Dec. 1, Missouri sports betting launched, and the interest level in the state was high.
BetMissouri.com developed projected handle estimated for the state, using population size, interest levels, past state launch handles. We have now adjusted those figures thanks to updated GeoComply data, based on active accounts after the launch.
Projected Missouri Sports Betting Handle
Timeframe | Projected handle |
Dec. 1-7, 2025 | $73,229,220 |
Dec. 1-31, 2025 | $292,916,880 |
Dec. 1, 2025-Nov. 30, 2026 | $3.515 billion |
Our Missouri Sportsbook Handle Forecast
While we wait for the first full month of wagering data from the Missouri Gaming Commission, we can say that the opening weekend of wagering in the Show-Me State showed strong interest overall.
Geolocation firm GeoComply has reported preliminary data, finding that there were more than 10,000 active sports betting accounts in the stands at Arrowhead for the Chiefs home game against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
Throw in the more than 43,000 geolocation checks that GeoComply tracked inside Arrowhead Stadium during the Chiefs’ latest home game and you have a sense of how quickly NFL fans are adapting to life after legal, regulated Missouri sportsbook apps became available.
GeoComply tracked more than 2.6 million geolocation checks across the state, where there are more than 250,000 active sports betting accounts and 188,000 pre-registered accounts.
What Could Change Projected Missouri Numbers?
There are a lot of factors that complicate trying to forecast the amount that Missourians will wager, whether the timeframe is a week, a month or a year.
For starters, the state’s lone NFL franchise, the Kansas City Chiefs, have a decade-long postseason streak that is in serious jeopardy. Coach Andy Reid’s bunch sits at 6-7 and in 10th place in the AFC, two games behind the Houston Texans for the conference’s last playoff spot. Even worse, Kansas City lost to Houston on Sunday night, so the Chiefs won’t win a head-to-head tiebreaker between those two teams.
At DraftKings Missouri Sportsbook, the Chiefs have +550 odds to make the playoffs, compared to -800 odds that they’ll miss. The team has already been mathematically eliminated from winning the AFC West, ending their nine-year reign as division champions.
The Chiefs’ current two-game slide, combined with a potential lack of in-state teams in the NFL postseason, could drive potential Missouri sports betting clients away from wagering on the sport’s postseason. We will have to wait a few weeks to know what’ll happen for sure.
And the state’s only NHL team is well out of the playoff chase right now, with St. Louis Blues playoff odds looking dim. The Blues are second-to-last in the Central Division at 11-13-7.
A lack of postseason play for in-state pro teams might negatively impact Missouri sports betting out of the gate.
One thing that could bolster the state’s standing is the Missouri Tigers basketball team, which aims to make the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row. Coach Dennis Gates’ team entered play on Thursday at 8-2 this season, with a shot at giving residents an in-state angle in a major sports betting cornerstone event, namely March Madness.
How We Came Up With Missouri Projections
We based our numbers on Missouri’s 2025 Census population estimate of 6,282,890, then the average handle size – or amount wagered – in the five sports betting states that are closest to Missouri in population: Maryland, Indiana, Massachusetts, Colorado and Tennessee.
Those five states have averaged just over $1.1 billion in handle (or $167.19 per resident) over the first four months after their markets launched, averaging out to $279,571,285 per month in handle.
From there, we multiplied the account data from GeoComply, which showed no less than 438,000 accounts in Missouri during the opening week of betting in the state, and multiplied it by that $167.19 figure to come up with our opening week estimate of $73,229,220.
From there, we multiplied that first-week handle by four (the number of weeks in December, plus a few days) to get our December handle estimate ($292,916,880). We estimate the first full year (Dec. 1, 2025 to Nov. 30, 2026) to hit about $3.515 billion in handle statewide.
Such an estimate would represent a 9.4% decrease from our initial 12-month handle projection ($3.88 billion) that we published in October, speaking to the continued tweaking of statewide handle performance that comes from seemingly insignificant things like the play of the state’s lone NFL franchise and other factors.
Our estimates for the first week and first month trended upward from our initial estimates, speaking to the surge in sports betting activity out of the gate in the Show-Me State.
To put those wagering figures in a Border War sense, Missouri’s projected handles would dwarf the sums put up by Kansas sportsbooks when the Sunflower State market launched in 2022. Operators in Missouri’s western neighbor took in a total handle of $718,777,560 over their first four months, or $179,694,390 per month. Kansas has a population a bit under 3 million, about half of Missouri.
Be sure to track the best Missouri sportsbook promo codes with us at BetMissouri.com as well as all the latest developments.
USA Today photo by Kirby Lee
