A new revenue source becomes available to Missouri on Dec. 1, when legal statewide sportsbooks can start taking wagers from residents. In addition to licensing fees, the state will levy a 10% tax on revenues that Missouri sports betting operators generate.
Just how much money the state will get during the first 12 months remains to be seen. But BetMissouri.com offers the following projection based on national betting trends.
First-Year MO Sports Betting Tax Projection
From Dec. 1, 2025, to Nov. 30, 2026, BetMissouri.com forecasts that the state will receive approximately $48.5 million in tax revenue. Based on the constitutional amendment voters approved a year ago, that money (after the state covers the cost to regulate the industry and withhold $5 million for problem gambling) will help fund education institutions across the state.
How did we get to that amount? For starters, we pegged the first-year Missouri sports betting handle projection at $3.88 billion. Handle means the amount of money bettors risk.
From there, we estimated a hold rate, also known as a win rate, of 12.5%. Historically, sports betting has been a low-hold game, at around 7% as an average. But thanks to the increase in parlay wagering – which means riskier all-or-nothing bets that require all legs to win for the bet to pay out – that rate has risen in recent years. At 12.5% hold, operators would generate about $485 million in revenue.
The Missouri Auditor’s office has projected revenues of up to $29 million. Most states, for what it’s worth, have offered lower estimates. This is based on projections from other states and using formulas that have not accounted for recent trends in sports betting.
Missouri Tax Forecast: What Can Change
Like any forecast, unexpected changes can lead to missed projections for Missouri sportsbook apps. A prolonged economic recession could lead to reduced discretionary income. That would likely impact the handle and perhaps operator revenues as well.
Not all unexpected changes are necessarily negative events, though. The Kansas City Chiefs winning the Super Bowl in February would likely cause short-term losses for operators that must pay out winning game and futures bets.
With the team now at 5-5, Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl odds might be on shaky ground now, and that factor could come into play for Missouri sportsbooks in a couple of weeks.
A Chiefs surge would impact gambling tax revenue, but the state would still see some benefit as operators would pay Missouri residents their winnings. The money from those winning bets would likely be recirculated into the local economy through such expenditures as purchases at local stores and trips to local restaurants.
BetMissouri.com will keep track of the handle and revenue generated in the state monthly and post those figures, along with our analysis, on a dedicated page. Watch for that page after the first of the year and keep an eye out for our best Missouri sports betting promo codes as well.
USA Today Network photo by April Barton/Burlington Free Press
